The hottest global oil price will usher in the sho

The global oil price will usher in the shock wave of the lifting of the ban on Iranian oil

the global oil price will usher in the shock wave of the lifting of the ban on Iranian oil

July 20, 2015

[China paint information] the historic agreement reached between Iran and the six countries on nuclear weapons negotiations has affected the nerves of the global economy. Iran's 100 billion barrels of oil inventory is about to flow into the oil trading market, which has been oversupplied. The international oil price fell by 11% in a single week, and the valve of a new round of oil decline has been opened. Since July, the price of West Texas crude oil has plummeted by 11%. The oil price that had stabilized at $60 left $51.86 a barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 8% to $57.50. Edward Morse, global president of Citigroup commodity research, warned: "Iran's huge oil ban has been lifted, and the worst moment in the global oil market is coming."

National Iranian oil company has asked all its oil fields to increase production this year. If the market demand is sufficient, the company's oil production will reach the level before Western sanctions, that is, 4million barrels per day. Iran's Deputy Minister of oil has said that Iran hopes to quickly double its crude oil export output and promote other OPEC member states to update their market quota system after the nuclear agreement is reached. After the lifting of sanctions, Iran's daily oil exports will increase by 1million barrels. As the global crude oil market has been oversupplied for a long time, it is predicted that the oil price will fall to around $40 again at that time

at the end of last year, the global oil price fell all the way to the lowest level in recent years outside the guarantee function. Russia, Venezuela and other major oil producing countries tried to make up for the reduced revenue gap. In May, international oil prices rebounded from the bottom of $45 a barrel at the end of last year, and oil producing countries began to expand production in turn because of the opportunity to increase their income. In the face of strong global oil demand, Saudi Arabia raised its official selling price on May 5. Affected by this, the global oil price once rose to $68.3 a barrel, reaching the highest level this year. Since falling to the lowest point in five years close to $45 a barrel in January this year, the benchmark crude oil of Brent in the North Sea, as the international benchmark crude oil, has now rebounded by 50%

the reason for this market is that traders' focus has shifted from the market with sufficient supply to the growth of oil consumption and the slowdown of us production growth. The weakness of the US dollar and the fluctuation of Libyan crude oil exports supported the rising momentum of oil prices for a month. In Libya, recent demonstrations have reduced the country's oil production. Saudi Arabia said it had no plans to limit its own production for the purpose of expanding market share. At present, Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil production has risen to more than 10million barrels. Saudi Arabia raised the legal selling price of refined oil in Europe and the United States, and maintained the refined oil price in Asia unchanged. Traders believed that the move showed Saudi Arabia's confidence in the growth of global oil demand. On the same day, Saudi Oil Minister Ali. Naimi said that "only God knows how much oil price is", indicating that he is not worried that the recovery of oil price may continue to promote the prosperity of shale oil in the United States

some market traders believe that this round of oil price rise may have come too fast and too fierce. EOG resources, the largest shale oil developer in the United States, said last week that if the oil price stabilized at about $65 a barrel, the company would restart hydraulic fracturing wells in North Dakota and Texas to continue shale oil production

since May this year, the oil price has risen steadily, so the revision of the electronic universal experimental machine is a very important preliminary preparation, which has helped the Central Bank of Russia cut interest rates. Last year, the Central Bank of Russia raised interest rates significantly to stabilize the ruble. If oil prices remain at a high level, emerging economies that are very dependent on crude oil imports will suffer serious losses. According to the model created by Ezra, when the oil price reaches $70 a barrel, it will have a profound impact on more than 20 emerging economies around the world

some market traders believe that this round of oil price rise may have come too fast and too fierce. The rebound in oil prices has encouraged some oil producers in the United States to continue to exploit oil. Pew, a commodity economist at Capital Economics in the United States, believes that in view of the rebound in oil prices, U.S. supply will also rebound rapidly. He also pointed out that from the perspective of the relationship between production and price in the past, the reduction in the number of oil wells seems to have been excessive. In the coming months, drilling activities may be reactivated. Because the samples used in the chemical resistance test have been soaked in chemicals for a period of time, the increase in production has formed a general trend

EOG resources, the largest shale oil developer in the United States, said last week that if the oil price stabilized at about $65 a barrel, the company would restart hydraulic fracturing wells in North Dakota and Texas to continue shale oil production. The sharp fall in oil prices had significantly reduced the number of drilling rigs in operation. However, figures from early May showed that the number of drilling rigs in operation in oil-rich regions in the United States increased slightly, which was the first increase in the number of drilling rigs in operation this year. The continuous increase in oil supply will curb the rise in oil prices. The world is worried about how the fundamental factors of crude oil will change in the second half of this year and next year

after several months of production reduction, American shale oil companies said they were ready to increase production, which will be the first important test of whether they can quickly cope with the rise in oil prices. Meanwhile, Western oil companies have increased their production plans for this year. Other miners said they would not hesitate to increase production if the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil reached $70 a barrel. At this time, the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate oil was $60.50, and the settlement price of Brent oil, as the global benchmark, was $66.81, which was visible from $70 a barrel. The global oil price of $70 per barrel is a new "knot"

Brazilians are not willing to lag behind, and are ready to increase exports by 50% this year in order to win a greater share of wealth in the global oil market. Petrobras issued a public statement in May, saying that exports will increase to 350000 barrels per day this year. Brazil exported 231500 barrels a day last year. Petrobras also said that its subsalt region oil field, which is known as the largest oil field in the Americas in more than 30 years and sometimes adopts casting structure (cast steel, cast aluminum, etc.), has a record daily oil production of 800000 barrels a day

it is also reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has also raised the production expectations of oil producers other than OPEC. All these increases will put pressure on oil prices for the rest of the year